Stylised world map with Biohazard symbol superimposed on it

Major Public Health Crisis

Pandemic Plan for Airlines

Before reading further you might wish to take a look at the background information shown in the sidebar

Pandemic Plan for Airlines – Introduction

International passenger airline ops, by their very nature, will continue to contribute to the global spread of infectious disease in the future – as they have done in the ‘relatively’ recent past. This might be particularly so during the early stages of e.g. a ‘pandemic’ type crisis – as many airlines, airports, ground handlers, tour operators etc. might well still be operating (relatively) normally (as was the case with the COVID-19 [coronavirus SARS Cov-2] pandemic of 2020-2022 approx)

Given e.g. a severe impact * Bird Flu (or equivalent e.g. like the actual [real] COVID-19 pandemic) pandemic situation occurring in the future, it is highly likely that international air travel would gradually be curtailed (and eventually stopped altogether for many countries), as the the pandemic rapidly spreads around the world (again, this was the reality with the COVID-19 pandemic situation)

* Note: As at early 2023 BIRD FLU (Avian Influenza – A/H5N1) had only infected a relatively small number of humans (possibly less then about 1,000?). However, its associated death rate is believed to have been around 50% (case to fatality ratio [CFR]) – compared to (very approximately) a 1 to 2% CFR for COVID-19

At this same time, there were no indications that Bird Flu was likely to ‘mutate / re-assort’ to a ‘form’which might precipitate a ‘human’ pandemic. Same goes for the coronavirus ‘Middle East Respiratory Syndrome – MERS‘ (Camel Flu – MERS. CoV) – which, in the very small number of humans infected to date, has resulted in a very approximate 35% CFR

Should Bird Flu (or a later evolution such as [A/H7N9]), Camel Flu etc. ever so mutate / reassort and cause an associated pandemic, there is the distinct possibility that actual CFRs might be significantly higher than that experienced for COVID-19. And a reminder here that it took the ‘world’ around 10 months (a period during which around several hundred million persons had become infected resulting in around 3 to 5 million deaths minimum)  to come up with a viable vaccine for COVID-19 – up to the point that initial vaccinations ops commenced. The latter (vaccination ops) was then expected to take  a further period (perhaps 1.5 to 2 years?) to complete, for most of the world

UPDATE: As at early 2023, approximately 70% of the world’s population were estimated to have received at least 1 (one) vaccination dose for COVID-19 (BUT e.g. in much of sub-saharan Africa this figure was estimated [very approximately] to have been around 30% [and significantly lower in some of such countries] at this same time)

For countries classified as fully and ‘almost’ fully developed, around 70-80% of populations had been fully vaccinated (full dose – whatever that was deemed to be at that time) against COVID-19 but, taking sub-saharan Africa again, we might be looking at less than 20-30% (and significantly lower in some of such countries)

Lastly, most of the world had yet to deliver additional doses of COVID-19 vaccine (i.e. over and above the full dose referred to just above) to its populations at this same time (early 2023) e.g. for much of sub-saharan Africa the figure was almost ‘zero’

Pandemic Plan for Airlines – Our Background & Experience

We have real-life expertise and practical experience in the preparation and planning (together with actual implementation of such planning) for public health incidents (e.g. pandemic plan for airlines) such as some of those referred to further above and following on below:

  • 2002 to 2007

From late 2002 to mid-2003 the AERPS consultant (whilst in the employ of a major, international airline) assumed responsibility for the preparation / oversight of that airline’s actual response to the SARS (coronavirus [SARS-CoV / SARS-CoV–1]) epidemic. The airline was directly impacted by the situation as it operated a ‘hub & spoke’ type operation, with Hong Kong being at the end of one of the spokes (the highly contagious SARS-CoV / SARS-CoV-1 mainly originated in Hong Kong). The overall death rate for this relatively short outbreak was estimated at very approximately 11% of those infected

Following this (and working with the same airline over the next 4-5 years) significant planning and preparation was given for / to the potential problems which the airline would face should ‘bird flu’ influenza virus (H5N1 strain) change (reassort / mutate) to a ‘human to human’ strain – and then ‘go pandemic’

During this latter period, the local (airline hub / HQ) airport and appropriate government health agencies worked closely with the airline in jointly developing a gradually escalating involvement with the associated (public health incident – pandemic) planning and preparation process, as it related to the local aviation situation

  • 2008 to 2010

Similar to the above – but now related to the swine-flu (influenza) pandemic of 2009 to 2010, and whilst the AERPS consultant was retained by the world’s largest charter / tour oprerator (passenger) airline

A further dimension implemented in this situation (over and above any direct, operational response to the pandemic) was building in a ‘business continuity‘ capability for the airline – based on a planning assumption that up to 40% of the workforce might concurrently be absent from work (e.g. due own sickness / isolation; caring for others with sickness etc.) for a ‘significant’ period

  • 2010 to Present

Generic versions of the above plans have been retained and continually updated (by the AERPS consultant) in line with developing threats re potential public health crises e.g the 2012 ‘new’ SARS (MERS) (Camel Flu) coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East (fatality rate around 35% = 860 persons as at late 2019 – 85% of them occurring in Saudi Arabia) – and the relatively new version of the ‘bird flu’ influenza virus – H7N9 strain (originated in China around 2012 [up to end of 2018 there had been around 1560 infections and 620 deaths – the vast majority in China itself] – i.e. a case : fatality ratio of around 40%)

In 2015 (reviewed and updated as required) a ‘useful’ information article was produced (by the AERPS consultant) on the mainly 2015 aspects of the Ebola Fever outbreak / epidemic (typically as they related to aviation) – which killed more than 15,000 people – most in West Africa. This outbreak had a fatality rate of about 50%! You can read the article HERE

  • 2020 – 2021 Update

Our ‘generic’ plans for guiding a ‘pandemic / major public health incident’ response for passenger airlines (Pandemic Plan for Airlines) have been updated to account for the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 – 2022. Links to these plans can be found  a little further down this webpage under titles ‘Crisis Response Planning Manual (CRPM) Part 4 / Volume 1’ and (separate document) ‘CRPM Part 4 / Volume 2’

Volume 1 provides background information – whilst Volume 2 delivers ‘hands-on’ practical  advice on e.g. response planning considerations, implementation, logistics etc.

Pandemic Plan for Airlines – Solutions & Services

Please contact us if we may be of service in originating / updating / reviewing / training / testing etc. your proposed or actual airline ‘public health / pandemic’ response plan(s)

Note 1 – As already mentioned further above, our FREE guideline document (Crisis Response Planning Manual – CRPM) for how PASSENGER AIRLINES might better plan for and respond to pandemic and other major public health type incidents, has been split into two separate volumes:

Volume 1 provides background / ‘setting the scene’ type information etc. – whilst…………

Volume 2 is more practical / ‘hands-on’ in nature

Note 2 – The equivalent plan for COMMERCIAL AIRPORTS can be found in our (separate document) AEP Volume 1 (When latter document opens – see sub-section 4B)

Note 3 – As appropriate, airline and / or airport pandemic / public health incident response plans should be adapted by GROUND HANDLING OPERATORS for the own purposes

Note 4 – For some useful aviation related info re the EBOLA Virus – see the ‘Ebola’ information article found at the end of this LINK

Note 5 – Please contact us if a WORD version (of any PDF document found on this website) is required. You are reminded of our terms and conditions regarding use of same

PANDEMIC PLAN for AIRLINES

Following the tragedy of the First World War (1914 – 1918 / about 20 million deaths) the ‘Spanish Flu’ influenza (H1N1 influenza virus) pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920 approx.) caused at least a further 40 million fatalities worldwide. Perhaps 500 million people (then very approximately one-third of the world’s population) had been infected. The real figures (deaths and more particulalrly infections) would certainly have been very significantly greater

More recently, the ‘Swine Flu’ influenza pandemic of 2009-10 killed approximately 350,000 persons globally. This pandemic resulted from a mutation (variant) of the H1N1 source virus (which had caused Spanish Flu, almost 100 years earlier [see above]). For comparison purposes ‘normal’ influenza deaths around the world numbered (very approximately) 475,000 in 2019

Note: Swine Flu and COVID-19 [see further below for more info on latter] were both contagious, respiratory illnesses, caused by different types of virus

COVID-19 was caused by infection with a new [novel] coronavirus – ‘SARS-CoV-2′

‘SARS-CoV-1’ (caused the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak) and MERS (‘MERS-CoV’ [Camel Flu]) were / are also based on (different but related) types of coronavirus

Swine Flu was caused by an influenza virus

As some of the signs / symptoms of influenza and coronavirus infections are similar, they cannot currently be differentiated based on symptoms alone i.e. some form of ‘testing’ is required to confirm diagnosis / virus type

‘Modern’ human pandemics are typically caused by animal (particularly bats and birds) viruses mutating / reassorting (changing) to strains infectious to humans e.g. swine flu in humans is related to mutations of the A(H1N1) pig (influenza) virus

As the resulting viruses are novel (new) – there will typically be no initial human immunity. IF this is combined with a rapid, international spread rate,  a pandemic eventually results

For some years now the major concern re future, potential pandemic is based on avian coronavirus (bird flu) strains A(H5N1) & A(H7N9). As at mid- 2024 the latter (and / or their mutations) had not developed into a viable ‘human to human’ strain, but ‘experts’ agree that it is a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’

To date, the death rate of those (very small number of persons) infected by A(H5N1) bird flu is about 50+%. This is a huge increase on the estimated 2-3% death rate for Spanish Flu, the estimated 0.02% for the human swine-flu pandemic of 2009 and the approximate 1 – 2% for the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic

Whilst the death rate for any actual (eventual) bird flu pandemic is expected to be somewhat lower than 50-60% – we will never know for sure until (if) it happens

One associated scenario predicts 50% of the world’s population becoming infected, with an associated 5% (of that 50%) fatality rate, which ‘translates’ as about 200 million deaths (roughly equivalent [early 2023] to 90% of Nigeria’s population – the world’s 7th most populous country)

It was still anticipated (as at mid-2024) that it might take up to 12 months to develop an effective bird flu vaccine (* and similar e.g. the COVID-19 [coronavirus] pandemic [started early 2020 and lasted until mid to late 2022] took 11 months from project start to delivery of first vaccine) from the time that a human to human strain of said virus is first identified

* The ‘apparent‘ death rate (case fatality rate – CFR) of COVID-19 initially appeared to average approximately 5% of those infected. However, for various reasons (not expanded upon here) the actual CFR was significantly lower than this (i.e. possibly somewhere between 1 to 2 % of those infected???)

Microscope view of a Bird Flu virus